AUSTIN, Texas (KXXV) — After deadly July 4th flooding devastated parts of Kerr County, a flood mitigation project underway in Central Texas could soon reach 100 more counties across the state — covering nearly 14 million people and five major river basins in what experts call "Flash Flood Alley."
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The Texas Senate and House Select Committee on Disaster Preparedness and Flooding, has been hearing from communities and reviewing recommendations from scientists, engineers, and state agencies in the wake of what officials call the worst natural disaster in recent Texas history.
“On the heels of probably the deadliest natural disaster that Texas has ever seen, we're realizing that predictive nature of floods is incredibly important,” said Texas Land Commissioner Dr. Dawn Buckingham. “No one could have predicted what happened in Kerrville – basically the equivalent of what flows over Niagara Falls in 48 hours falling in a small canyon in an hour.”
The disaster exposed major gaps in the state’s early warning system. Lawmakers said they're now searching for a statewide solution – and one already exists.
Coryell County Becomes the Blueprint
For more than a year, Texas A&M AgriLife Blackland Research and Extension Center, backed by funding from the Texas General Land Office (GLO), has been heading a new approach to flood mitigation in Coryell County and surrounding areas. The project includes predictive modeling, flood gauges, and early warning systems to warn the public and first responders in real time.
“This area is known as Flash Flood Alley,” June Wolfe, a research scientist with Texas A&M AgriLife Blackland Research and Extension Center, said. “The goal of the project is to develop these flood models. Another big component is flood mitigation – that’s developing management plans, pilot gauge systems, and stakeholder engagement.”
Unlike coastal flooding, flash floods in the Hill Country can strike without warning.
“There are several kinds of floods out there,” Dr. Raghavan Srinivasan, center director for Texas A&M AgriLife Blackland Research and Extension Center, said. “Coastal flood is one. Slow river rising floods — like what happens in Mississippi. But here in central Texas, rainfall happens in a very short notice and translates into a river flood.”
The Science Behind the System
The system uses a layered approach: historical rainfall and runoff data, land use maps, soil and elevation data, real-time doppler radar, and sophisticated hydrologic modeling.
“So the models are one of the major focuses that this center has had all along,” said Dr. Srinivasan. “We have been developing these models – the predictive models – based on the rainfall, based on the land use, and the topography, and soils over 30-plus years.”
The models are calibrated using flood gauges — real devices that sit in streams and creeks, capturing water flow and depth to verify the accuracy of predictions.
“As little as 6 inches of fast, swift moving water can knock a person off their feet,” Wolfe said. “A foot can wash a vehicle off the road. Even at Fort Hood, where they operate large heavy military equipment, 2 feet of water can move vehicles off the road.”
Those dangers increase at night, on rural roads, or in areas where people are unaware water is even coming.
“When it comes to a flash flood, you may think it's a clear day,” Dr. Srinivasan said. “But the rain may have occurred much farther from where you are – upstream – and you're never even aware. You’ll be downstream not knowing that the rain occurred that's carrying this flash flood.”
Education
To help Texans better understand flood risk, Texas A&M Blackland Research & Extension Center shared with 25 News key definitions and background on how flood detection and warning systems work.
- Flood mitigation system or framework: A set of documented management procedures and supporting infrastructure designed to detect, monitor, and alert authorities and the public regarding impending or current flood conditions and guide emergency response.
- Flood alert system: refers to the technical infrastructure and monitoring network of sensors and gauges used to detect and evaluate potential flooding conditions. The "sensing".
- Flood warning system: refers to the processes and communication mechanisms used to notify authorities and the public that flooding is expected or occurring and what to do. The "response".
- Stream gauge network: typically consist of an equipment shelter, a power system (i.e., battery-solar), a water level sensor (i.e., pressure, radar, etc.), a rain gauge, a data-logger, and a telemetry device (e.g., radio, satellite). Stream gauges are only part of a flood mitigation program. They are most useful for supporting computer forecasting models prior to flood events, issuing early warnings as water levels exceed set thresholds, and monitoring conditions during flood events.
- Flood models: are essential tools used to understand, predict, and manage flooding. Models help identify and define flood-prone areas, inform design of engineering projects, assist with decision support, and serve as the foundation for forecasting flood events required to issue timely alerts, and inform emergency responses.
- Hydrologic models: are used to simulate and forecast runoff from rainfall in real time or near-real time. They estimate how much water will run off the land, when peak flow will occur, and where in the watershed runoff will concentrate. They are used in flood forecasting by linking them with real-time or forecasted precipitation data gathered from radar or weather models.
- Hydraulic models: Hydraulic models translate hydrologic stream flow estimates into real-world flood behavior like how deep the water will get, how far it spreads, and how fast it flows. They are used to generate flood inundation maps and predict when water will reach critical thresholds.
Scaling Up: What Expansion Could Look Like
If this project was expanded, it would apply these models across 100 counties — using a basin-by-basin approach. Each watershed – the Brazos, Colorado, Guadalupe, Nueces, and Trinity – would be modeled based on its unique geography and population makeup.
"Each basin has different needs,” Wolfe explained. “There are different types – rural or urbanized areas. All of that's taken into account.”
The work would also involve identifying more than 92,000 low-water crossings across the counties and deploying people to monitor and collect field data.
That’s where A&M Central Texas comes in.
“We received $2 million for what's called the military talent pipeline,” said Texas A&M Central Texas President Dr. Richard Rhodes.
“From Fort Hood, on a monthly basis, there's somewhere around 1,200 to 1,500 soldiers who are exiting the military and going back into civilian life. Through the military talent pipeline we want to help those now veterans, reintegrate into the civilian workforce. This is an ideal population to work with us on this project.”
The university’s role includes integrating artificial intelligence and advanced machine learning into the model, as well as using veterans to help inspect road and stream crossings, feed data into the system, and support fieldwork in real time.
A Race Against Time
The project has already produced results in Central Texas – with flood alerts, early warnings, and improved coordination between agencies.
“If we are provided an opportunity – we can definitely jump with both feet,” said Dr. Srinivasan. “The models can be developed for each river basin in about a 6 to 9 month period concurrently, but then we can also double the efforts with more human resources and be able to speed up as quickly as possible to help the state of Texas.”
But modeling alone isn’t enough. The team emphasized the need for coordinated communication systems, education, and infrastructure.
They say the ultimate goal is not just to predict where water will go, but to save lives.
“You can’t prevent floods,” Wolfe said. “But if we can get a quicker lead time to get people out of the way — that’s our goal.”
And with the system already underway in counties like Coryell, Bell, and Hamilton — the message is clear.
“We're not starting from scratch,” said Dr. Rhodes. “All of the effort has already been put forward and we're ready to go.”
“The GLO is here to help,” Buckingham added. “We help Texans recover from disasters every day and we're going to keep on doing it.”
