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Warm and muggy Thursday with isolated storms possible

Expect a warm and muggy day with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. An isolated storm will be possible in the afternoon with the potential to turn severe. Storm chances continue into Friday.
Posted at 8:08 AM, Mar 14, 2024

CENTRAL TEXAS — Expect a warm and muggy day with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. An isolated storm will be possible in the afternoon with the potential to turn severe. Storm chances continue into Friday.

THE BREAKDOWN:

  • A warm and muggy day is on the way today with highs approaching 80.
  • There is the potential for isolated severe storms to pop in the afternoon from Waco north. The biggest threat would be large hail to golf ball size.
  • Another threat of storms is around Friday.
  • Rain chances linger into the weekend.

We're waking up this morning to a very humid start to the day. Expect it to remain muggy with south winds continuing around 15-20mph through the day. That breezy wind will continue to bring in warm and muggy air pushing temperatures to near 80 by afternoon.
All of the warm and muggy air can serve as fuel for severe storms. The set up is right today, we'll have a cold front to the north and a dry line to the west. The thing is we'll also have a layer of warm air about a half mile above the ground that tends to suppress storm development. That may very well win out today, but it will be a balance between that and the warm muggy air at the ground that will determine if we see severe storms. *IF* storms are able to bust through that layer, they will strentghen quickly as they move north into the area. Large hail to golf ball size, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado. Another possible area would be along the dry line to the northwest of Waco. We will watch both areas closely this afternoon and evening.

Our best chances of rain will actually come overnight into the morning hours on Friday as a cold front moves through. Right now it looks like most of these storms will happen along and behind the front, lowering the severe weather threat. Still, some hail up to the size of coins will be possible if storms can ramp up. If any storm can wiggle south of the front, there will be the chance for larger hail and maybe even an isolated tornado. Friday afternoon, the front could stall south of Waco-Temple-Killeen and into the Brazos Valley. If that happens, storms could fire in the warm air south of the front. These will carry the threat of hail to the size of Golf balls or larger, and an isolated tornado threat. The forecast is very fluid, so stay tuned for updates.

More showers and storms are possible Saturday as another disturbance lifts over, but since these are in the cooler air, they should stay below severe limits. Still, Saturday could feature scattered storms, so monitor them for your plans.

Showers may linger into St. Patrick's day with temperatures in the 60s and 70s. A cool down takes us into early next week before more storm chances by the middle of the week.

Have a great Thursday, we'll keep you advised!

Meteorologist Josh Johns
25 Weather