Warm & muggy start to week before mid-week cold blast

Highs will near 80° today with south breezes.
Posted at 5:49 AM, Feb 21, 2022
and last updated 2022-02-21 06:56:13-05

CENTRAL TEXAS — It's a soupy start to your work week as we are dealing with drizzle and fog kicking off your President's Day. That will be around for the first part of the day as highs climb to near 80° thanks to warm Gulf air that will work in. Drizzle and fog should burn off later this afternoon, but south breezes will remain. Rain chances remain rather low today, as the bulk of precipitation should stay to our north thanks to a strong cap in place over Central Texas. Severe weather could take place to our north near the Metroplex, but we will likely miss out.

Things remain warm and muggy for the next couple of days, but a strong cold front will arrive overnight into Wednesday. Temperatures will fall, with our high temperatures occurring early in the overnight hours. The big question will be how deep does this cold air get? We could see temperatures falling below freezing as early as Wednesday morning, particularly northwest of Waco-Temple-Killeen. Drizzle will be likely behind the front, which means we could see a mix of freezing drizzle in place Wednesday, and if temperatures remain below freezing, this could spell issues. Right now, it looks like that freezing line will flirt with Waco-Temple-Killeen, which would keep most impacts to the northwest, but it will all come down to what the atmosphere looks like on Wednesday.

A second wave of energy will work over Wednesday night into Thursday morning, which is where I think we will see the potential for some minor ice accumulations where things remain below freezing. Right now, it looks like that best chance will be northwest of Waco-Temple-Killeen, but if cold air ends up further south, that could spell issues for area roadways for the Thursday morning commute. We will continue to monitor the forecast models over the next 24-48 hours and adjust the forecast. Stay tuned.

Behind this system, things dry out for Friday into the weekend, but it could remain chilly with highs in the 40s. Temperatures should work back into the 50s next week.

Meteorologist Josh Johns
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