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Storm chances returning this week

Highs will climb into the low 80s this afternoon with an isolated storm possible west of I-35. Isolated storm chances hang around through Wednesday with better storm chances Thursday and Friday.
Posted at 7:58 AM, Mar 04, 2024

CENTRAL TEXAS — Almost as if on cue, Mother Nature is dialing up a chance of storms for the first week of Severe Weather Season here in Central Texas.

THE BREAKDOWN:

  • A muggy day is ahead, providing fuel for potential thunderstorms as highs climb into the 80s.
  • The trigger for storms will be out to the west along the dry line, but there's not a lot of lift to fire them off. Many miss out.
  • If a storm gets going, hail and wind remain the main threats.
  • Isolated storm chances continue this week with better storm chances Thursday and Friday.

We're waking up this morning to a very muggy atmosphere thanks to Gulf moisture that has been shoved north by southerly winds overnight. Expect that to burn off to temperatures that will be closer to the 79-80° range this afternoon. Further to the west, an isolated storm could pop up along a dry line. The best chance for this will be to our southwest over the Hill country. If one gets going, the energy is there for high winds and hail, but many won't be affected.
Tomorrow, the dry line gets overtaken by a Pacific cold front. This will shove it west across Central Texas to the I-45 corridor. Behind the dry line, westerly downslope winds will push temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Along and east of the dry line, an isolated storm will be possible but will move into East Texas if it forms. The main threat with this will once again be high winds and hail.

Wednesday will bring another isolated storm threat, but anything should be elevated, which means it will likely be below severe limits. Once again, this will be isolated.

The best storm chances arrive Thursday as the core of our storm system combines with a cold front coming in from the northwest. This will likely lead to widespread showers and storms on Thursday. The good news is, it looks like most of these will also be elevated, so the severe threat will be low. The question mark comes in Friday morning as a surface low deepens to our northwest. It may draw up enough energy that a few storms could turn strong to severe along the main cold front. Once again, the threat will be mainly large hail and winds.

Thursday and Friday still carry a lot of uncertainty, so watch for changes in our forecast.

Drier air works in behind a cold front into the weekend shoving temperatures down into the mid 60s!

Have a great Monday!

Meteorologist Josh Johns
25 Weather