CENTRAL TEXAS — First things first... yes Waco hit 100 degrees again. This is now the 28th day in a row.
The major weather story is a tropical disturbance that's quickly forming and organizing in the Gulf, just south of New Orleans. It currently has a low pressure central and is close to Tropical Depression status, with the National Hurricane Center giving it a 50% chance of becoming a Tropical Storm within the next 48 hours. Why this matters is that it's moving west towards southeast Texas. Several models push the storm's core towards Galveston, Houston, and up towards the Brazos Valley and ultimately Central Texas too! Should this happen, temperatures will be easily below 100 degrees with very heavy rain possible within 10-20 miles of the storm's core... but this means the EXACT position matters greatly.
Timing: this possible Tropical Storms could hit the Brazos Valley as early as Tuesday evening, but it's more likely the effects will be felt Wednesday and Thursday.
Rain: Heavy for those that are underneath the storm's core, with upwards of 5" of rain possible. But there is no guarantee for any rain just yet because it is not certain that the storm will, in fact, hold together completely by the time is arrives in Central Texas.
Temperatures: Tropical cloud cover would likely dampen high temperatures into the mid-90s with a very-VERY off chance for those affected by heavy rains to have a high temperature in the upper-80s. But this likely breaks our 100 degree streak.
There's a lot of unknown variables here, mainly whether of not this tropical disturbance will hold together at all before reaching Central Texas, and if so where the exact positioning will be located. We'll have a much clearer picture by Monday evening and Tuesday morning for sure.
- 25 News Meteorologist Thomas Patrick
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