CENTRAL TEXAS — This Sunday, Mother's Day, we will likely be tracking severe thunderstorms for Central Texas. Thankfully, it won't be until the evening, so Mom's will be able to enjoy a warm Spring day outdoor before calling in a night by 6pm for most of Central Texas.
A cold front moving southward into Texas on Sunday will fire up thunderstorms around I-20 between Abilene and Fort Worth around 3pm. From there the storms will move southeastward towards all of Central Texas and mainly affect our area from 5pm to midnight Sunday. These storms will likely have large hail and high winds - especially locations nearest I-20 and northwest of Waco/Temple/Killeen. Around the time the storms hit Waco and Killeen at 7pm to 8pm, the hail threat should diminish, but high winds are still very likely as the storms' outflow boundaries will keep their momentum and wind speeds moving forward (southeastward). By the time the storms hit the Brazos Valley around 10pm, the severe weather risks will be dropping more. Heavy rain and thunder is likely, and perhaps a last gasp of a strong wind gust.
The tornado risk is very low for this event. Upper air winds are so light, and wind sheer is so low, that supercell thunderstorms will be hard-pressed to exist. These storms will quickly form a squall line and their own rain-cooled air will be the only source of wind that will keep moving the storms forward. This is why hail and wind are the severe weather threats, and less so for tornadoes.
After the cold front clears Central Texas, temperatures will slightly dip to the upper 70s on Monday. After that, warm May days ahead all week with high tmeperatures in the upper 80s and flirting with 90 degrees. The average high temperatures for Waco are in the mid-80s this time of year, so this is no extreme stretch of heat.
- 25 News Meteorologist Thomas Patrick
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