CENTRAL TEXAS — Lots of scattered thunderstorms have popped up over Central Texas today. These storms are hugging a couple boundaries and pose a flooding risk should they produce 3" of rain or more at a time.
Flood Watch issued for approximately the southern half of Central Texas. These are the counties currently under the Flood Watch: San Saba, Lampasas, Burnet, Coryell, Bell, Williamson, Falls, Milam, Robertson, Leon, Burleson, Brazos, Madison, and Grimes. The Fort Worth/Dallas and San Angelo forecast offices opted to go through Monday evening for their counties (which is most of Central Texas). the Austin/San Antonio forecast office put their counties under the watch until Tuesday. And the Houston forecast office put the Brazos Valley under the watch until Wednesday.
The cold front responsible for the action today is currently over Dallas and slowing moving southward towards Central Texas. An outflow boundary has stalled directly over a Hamilton to Waco to Grosbeck line where scattered showers continue to bubble up. Thirdly, another boundary associate with the Gulf sea breeze is moving northwards past the Brazos Valley. If these boundaries intersect, we could be on for some stronger thunderstorms and very heavy rainfall under those storms which may not be moving very fast. Not a "severe weather" risk, but a flooding risk for locations caught underneath the storms. Like we've seen recently, 3" of rain or more can cause flooding for flood prone areas and nearby river banks.
The cold front will be passing through Central Texas tonight or early Monday morning. More storms will still bubble up along the outflow boundaries, meaning another solid chance for storms across the area Monday. Greatest chance for rain will be southeast / Brazos Valley, lower chances to the northwest of Waco. Temps will be a lot cooler! Highs in the low 80s for a day or two.
Next week, we'll be monitoring a tropical disturbance which is currently over Mexico and slides into the Gulf just off the coast of Texas. Whether or not this becomes a named Tropical Storm or not, heavy rain is likely along the coast from Corpus Christi to Galveston. Storms could reach the Brazos Valley and Central Texas Friday... but I believe the rainfall will have a sharp cutoff between rain and dry locations. So more of an all-or-nothing forecast where we're at a 60-70% chance to stay on the dry-side of this tropical disturbance. More details to come.
- 25 News Meteorologist Thomas Patrick
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