CENTRAL TEXAS — The weather will offer a slight change of pace today with higher humidity and the start of an active / stormy weather pattern. Rain and storm chances are near daily from today through next Thursday, but some days have much higher chances for storms than others and we're starting to dial in which of those days may or may not have severe weather too.
Starting with today, an isolated pop-up storm is possible for central Texas, mainly in southern areas like the Brazos Valley. This is mostly due to the increase in humidity levels where dew points have just started to creep up to 60 degrees, which is about the threshold for a "humid" day versus a drier one. But with no fronts or other focal points, the storm chances are just isolated, ie 20%. Friday has a slightly higher chances for storms at 40%. Models continues to give us pop-up storms during the heat of the day, but now pretty much anywhere for Central Texas.
As for the weekend. Nothing more than pop-up storms Saturday. Sunday has a higher chance for storms but a lot will depend on what happens to our west. A dryline will fire up storms and severe weather for West Texas Sunday. Should those storms propigate eastward into central Texas, we'll get our fair share of evening thunderstorms. However, model guidance has waiver recently so it's hard to tell how much rain we'll get... or if the storm will even fizzle out before arriving. My best analysis will keep severe weather chances well west of Waco since the dryline is quite simply too far away.
Next week is still unsettled and stormy, with Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning currently boasting the best thunderstorm chances as a cold front finally passes through. There will be storms, but this is too far in advance to tell if there are any reasonable severe weather chances, despite the Storm Prediction Center places parts of Central and North Texas in slight risk areas.
- 25 News Meteorologist Thomas Patrick
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