It has been a pretty dry start to the year across Central Texas. History tells us that by late March, we should’ve already recorded about 7+ inches of rain. How much have we received since January 1st? We’ve only recorded 3.26 inches of rain, which places us about 4 inches behind in the rainfall category. Yes, our trees and plants are greening up, but our soil is pretty dry. But BIG changes could be coming next week, and heavy rainfall could put a major dent in the drought.
TIMING: Sunday - Thursday
Let’s start off with this weekend. Saturday should stay pretty dry, with the exception to some drizzle and isolated showers across our southern counties. Sunday is a day to watch in terms of thunderstorms. All of the ingredients will be in place for at least marginally severe storms. We're going to be tracking a dryline over West Texas (a boundary separating dry air to the west from moist air to the east). If that dryline approaches our area, it could kick up some storms Sunday afternoon and evening. Right now, we only have isolated storms in the forecast. If the dryline stays well to our west, we might not see anything but a few isolated showers. We'll keep you updated as more short-range model runs come in.
As far as next week goes, things could turn very wet across the region. A strong low pressure system is currently impacting the West Coast. This system will approach our area over the next few days, increasing our chances for precipitation. Storm chances will go up significantly starting Monday. Both the American Model (GFS) & the European Model (EURO) suggest that rain totals could range between 1-4 inches between Monday and Thursday. In fact, there's a chance we could see periods of torrential rainfall, which could lead to some flooding.
Yes, we could use the rain out here, but a lot of rain in a short period of time could become an issue. Make sure to keep an eye on your First Alert Central Texas weather apps. If you don't already have it, search "KXXV" in your app store and download it. It's the best way to stay in tune with the short-term forecast.
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