The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas forecasts that Texas job growth is set to increase by 5.6 percent in 2021, this is an increase from the May 4.1 percent estimate.
The estimate comes from a system design approach that looked at national forecasts, COVID-19 hospitalizations and oil futures prices. Texas added 43,900 jobs in June, and 267,400 jobs this year to date.
“Healthy job growth in May and June and a stronger outlook for U.S. GDP growth in the second half of the year pushed up the forecast,” said Keith Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist.
Unemployment rates declined slightly overall, from May's 6.6 percent to 6.5 percent in June. But, declined more significantly in all nine Texas major metro areas, as seen below:
“Supply bottlenecks and labor constraints are likely to ease in the second half of the year," said Phillips. "The forecast would be even stronger except for an increase in projected Texas COVID-19 hospitalizations in the third quarter, which may suppress growth somewhat.”
The employment forecast predicts that 695,600 jobs will be added this year, and by December 13 million of the workforce will be employed.