WEST, Texas(KXXV) — Cattle numbers are shrinking at auction barns across Texas, and that tightening supply is driving up prices — good news for ranchers, but a growing burden for consumers.
At West Auction Barn in Lacy Lakeview, owner Brian Uptmore said he has watched the numbers fall steadily over time.
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"Uh, we run bigger numbers in the fall because most 75% of the calves are born in the spring, so that makes them ready to sell in the fall… but I have noticed the numbers, you know, declining gradually," Uptmore said.
That gradual decline is part of a larger shift across Texas. After years of drought and low profit, many ranchers were forced to sell off cattle just to stay afloat. Now, with the herd smaller, prices are climbing.
"It's making for a higher market, really good for the cow-calf producer. He's finally getting his turn. They've gone through several tough years of low prices and droughts… so now what we're seeing is a shortage of supply. The demand's staying good — and that's making the price higher," Uptmore said.
For livestock ranchers, the shift is a relief. For consumers, it is sticker shock. Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller told 25 News the market may have already crossed an important threshold.
"We've kind of passed the sweet spot… where the cattle ranchers can make some money and the consumers can still afford it. But we've kind of tipped over that just a little bit," Miller said.
Rebuilding the herd, however, is not a quick fix.
"The challenge with beef is you can't just flip the switch and suddenly have more cattle in the field. It takes a while — one to two years — to start seeing the herds grow again," financial expert Bill Dendy said.
Back at the auction barn, Uptmore said he does not expect the trend to reverse anytime soon.
"Fundamentally, I think we're gonna be tight on supplies for a while," Uptmore said.
Ranchers are finally seeing strong returns after years of drought and low margins, but how long this market holds depends on whether herds can rebuild.
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