New data predicts 6,000 deaths in Texas; predicts peak resource use on May 5

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Posted at 10:29 AM, Apr 01, 2020
and last updated 2020-04-01 12:03:17-04

New data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts that Texas will hit peak data resource usage on May 5.

This datasat puts Texas behind other states in their peaks.

"In a forecast based on new data analyses, researchers find demand for ventilators and beds in US hospital intensive care units (ICUs) will far exceed capacity for COVID-19 patients as early as the second week of April," the institute said in a press release.

The forecast predicts that 41 states will need more ICU beds than they currently have available and that 11 states may need to increase their ICU beds by 50% or more to meet patient needs before the current wave of the pandemic ends. (The end is defined as fewer than 10 deaths per day nationwide.)

The data predicts that Texas will need 16,507 beds. Texas has 28,633 beds, so no predicted shortage there.

However, the data also predicts that the state will need 2,482 ICU beds, whereas the state has 2,259 ICU beds available.

They said the data will change in real time, but as of April 1, they are predicting Texas peak resource usage day to be May 5.

They also predict that there will be over 6,000 deaths by August.

This study used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from WHO websites and local and national governments; data on hospital capacity and utilization for US states; and observed COVID-19 utilization data from select locations to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the US over the next 4 months.

Here is the results of their data for the entire country:

Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.

For the complete data set, click here.