The combination of Hurricane Melissa’s strength, slow movement and Jamaica’s topography could make for a worst-case scenario as the powerful system strikes the island nation Tuesday.
Hurricane Melissa remained a Category 5 early Tuesday as its eye churned just miles from the coast. The hurricane was drifting to the north-northeast at 9 mph as of noon Eastern time.
Inside Melissa’s eyewall, 185 mph winds were blowing across the Caribbean Sea. Soon, that push of wind will drive water and waves ashore, creating a potential storm surge of 9 to 13 feet. A Hurricane Hunters flight found that Hurricane Melissa's air pressure had dropped early Tuesday morning, signifying the storm is still intensifying.
Based on its pressure, Hurricane Melissa is the third-strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. If it maintains its strength until landfall, it would be the strongest hurricane to strike land in the Atlantic basin since 1935.
As devastating as the wind and storm surge might be, the effects of heavy rain could be the worst outcome. Up to 30 inches of rain is possible for much of the island, with higher elevations potentially receiving up to 40 inches, the National Weather Service warned. This heavy rain is expected to cause significant flooding and mudslides.
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The National Hurricane Center said some fluctuation in intensity is expected as Melissa draws closer to the coast, especially as the hurricane’s center begins to interact with Jamaica’s mountainous terrain.
Regardless, the center expects a catastrophic blow to Jamaica on Tuesday and urged residents to remain sheltered.
“Catastrophic flash flooding, landslides and destructive winds will continue through today, causing widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication outages, and isolated communities,” the National Hurricane Center said. “Total structural failure is possible near the path of Melissa’s center. Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected through the day. Failure to act may result in serious injury or loss of life.”
While the eye is now expected to miss Kingston to the west, the capital region will still see heavy rain and hurricane-force winds throughout the day.
Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness said the United States was among nations that have pledged support.
“We have received calls of support from our partners — the United Nations, United States, the British, the French, the European Union, the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA),” he said. “All the CARICOM countries have reached out to pledge support in one way, shape or form, and I want to thank all of them for being so willing to support our recovery efforts and our preparation efforts as well.”
He urged residents to not rely on outside assistance for the next three days and to ensure they have enough water to survive.
“Normally with a hurricane, you focus on two things — wind and rain — because it happens very quickly. Now we have to focus on three things: wind, rain and the length of time it will probably linger over the country,” Holness said. “You’re not just dealing with saturation; you’re dealing with a high level of destruction, a higher probability of landslides, a higher probability of flooding even in areas where flooding would not have taken place, so we have to bear that in mind and be prepared.”
Additionally, hurricane warnings have been issued for eastern Cuba and the central Bahamas. A tropical storm warning is in place for parts of Haiti.
