Texans are having more babies than the rest of the United States as the nation’s fertility rate declines, Census data released Thursday show. But the state’s fertility rate is falling, too.
Texas had the highest fertility rate among other large states like California, Florida and New York in 2025, according to The Texas Tribune’s calculation of Census data. The state saw about 58 live births for every 1,000 women of childbearing age from July 1, 2024 to July 1, 2025, the data show — higher than the national average of about 53.
Still, the state’s fertility rate has fallen for nearly two decades, mirroring a global trend of declining births. Americans aren’t having enough children to maintain the country’s population in the long run, a decline driven by a number of factors including the high cost of living and a meager safety net for would-be parents, experts said. Expanded access to contraception and sex education has driven down birth rates, and helped women stay in the workforce and have kids later in life. Americans are getting married later and having fewer children, if they choose to have them at all — and making sure they’re financially secure if they do.
“If you actually want to encourage people to have children, you have to create an environment that makes them interested in doing that and feeling like they’re responsible parents,” said Elizabeth Gregory, who leads the University of Houston’s Institute for Research on Women, Gender and Sexuality.
That slower birth rate has spurred concerns that the country’s population could eventually decline, leading to slower economic growth as the number of workers declines and leaving a smaller number of people to shoulder the costs of taking care of an aging population.
Texas has historically had higher birth rates than states like California and New York, said Lloyd Potter, the state demographer. Texas is younger, with more people of child-bearing age, than other states, he said. Hispanics have higher fertility rates than other ethnic groups, Potter said, and Texas has a high Hispanic population. It’s also possible that the state’s higher proportion of conservative Christians, who tend to have larger families, than other places has kept its birth rates high, Potter said.
The state’s urban areas also have higher birth rates than other large metros. Out of the country’s 25 largest counties, Dallas, Harris and Tarrant counties had the three highest birth rates as of July 1, 2025, Census data show. Out of the state's 25 most populous counties, 10 exceed the state's fertility rate: Hidalgo, Webb, Bell, Cameron, Jefferson, Dallas, Nueces, McLennan, Smith and Harris.
Other states have higher fertility rates than Texas, including South Dakota, Nebraska, Kentucky, Alaska and Oklahoma.
None of them, including Texas, is exempt from declining birth rates.
“Birth rates are declining in all states,” Potter said. “The pace of decline has been somewhat similar in Texas as it has been in states that were starting from a similar place.”
High costs of housing and child care have weighed on people’s decision of whether to have kids at all or have as many kids as they’d like, Gregory said. Anxiety around climate change has also been a factor, she said; people might not want to bring children into a world they believe is going to be worse.
On the bright side, the nation’s falling birth rate has been fueled by a significant drop in teenage births. That’s true in Texas, which remains above the national average in teen births; the state doesn’t require sex education, makes it difficult for teenagers to access effective contraception and has the strictest abortion ban in the country.
It’s possible economic concerns about declining birth rates are overblown, Gregory said. For those future workers who aren’t being born, they are being replaced. “Women are taking the place of their unborn children in the workforce, you could say,” Gregory said.
On the flip side, Texas’ higher fertility rate may help the state’s economy weather workforce shortages brought on by a nationwide slowdown in immigration, Potter said.
Just because people aren’t having kids now doesn’t mean they’ll never have kids, Gregory said.
“What you’re seeing is a big shock to birth rates,” Gregory said. “It doesn’t mean that all these people won’t have kids later. It just means they haven’t had them now.”
Disclosure: University of Houston has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.
This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.
