A tropical cyclone is brewing in the Gulf of Mexico, and most signs point to major impacts along the Gulf Coast. Get familiar with the name Harvey, because you’ll be hearing it quite a bit throughout the rest of the week.
The National Hurricane Center upgraded Harvey to a tropical storm on Thursday, with maximum sustained winds at 45 mph. Harvey is quickly organizing in the Gulf of Mexico, moving through waters conducive for strengthening. Most forecast models are taking this system northwest toward the coast of Texas, but a few forecast models are suggesting that this system may move over the northern coast of Mexico. Here’s a look at some possible scenarios that could unfold by the end of the workweek.
(Worst Case Scenario 40% Chance)
Tropical Storm Harvey continues to strengthen and makes landfall along the Texas coast. This would bring the potential for serious flooding across a handful of counties.
Timing: This Weekend
(Best Case Scenario 60% Chance)
Tropical Storm Harvey pushes west northwest over the coast of Mexico, stays south of Texas, and deteriorates over mountainous terrain. This would minimize the flooding potential for Central Texas.
Timing: This Weekend
BOTTOM LINE
There’s still a lot of uncertainty regarding Harvey’s forecast track. Will it move over the Texas coast? Most models suggest that this WILL happen. However, there’s still potential for other scenarios to take place.
Regardless, it will be important for Texans to stay weather aware throughout the remainder of the workweek, and to take precautions (especially in South Texas). If you have any plans to head south toward Houston or San Antonio this weekend, major flooding is possible. You may need to reconsider your plans as new forecast updates come in.
The First Alert 25 Weather Team will be in the weather center around the clock watching the latest forecast trends. Expect multiple updates per day through your First Alert 25 weather apps, as well as other digital platforms.
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